National Average Returns to Decline as Oil Slips
by: GasBuddy
Published: July 22, 2024
Gas prices in Huntington Beach
BOSTON...he nation’s average price of gasoline has risen 1.9 cents compared to a week ago to $3.47 per gallon today, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 3.5 cents from a month ago but is 9.9 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has fallen 4.0 cents in the last week and stands at $3.79 per gallon—the same level as one year ago.
“Most of the country has seen a reprieve from rising gasoline prices, thanks to weaker-than-expected gasoline demand, building supplies and a quiet period in the tropics,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While a good portion of the nation saw average gas prices decline, severe weather completely knocked out power to a major refinery outside Chicago early last week, immediately impacting gasoline supplies to Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan, and pushing prices up considerably. We’ve often said how critical refineries are, and with a long power outage, we’re seeing the impact very quickly, but relief will eventually arrive. For now, as we approach the end of summer vacations, I’m hopeful gas prices will continue to edge slightly lower in the week ahead.”
OIL MARKETS
Oil prices have lost some of their recent steam as investors looked to the Fed for signs of when rate cuts may begin. The U.S. Fed will meet July 30-31 to decide on interest rates, with the market expecting them to hold rates steady before cutting them in September. China’s economic expansion of 4.7% in the second quarter also led to concerns over the country’s demand for oil, putting downward pressure on prices with the lower-than-expected figure. China surprised markets by cutting a key short-term rate to help boost the economy after the disappointing data. In early Monday trade, WTI crude was off 51 cents to $79.62 per barrel, down from last week’s $82.34 per barrel start. Brent crude was also lower, falling 55 cents to $82.08, nearly $3 lower than last week’s $85.12 per barrel start.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
Last week’s report from the EIA showed a large 4.9 million barrel decline in oil inventories, now down nearly 4% from last year, while the SPR tacked on another 700,000 barrels to almost 374 million. Domestic crude oil production was unchanged at record levels of 13.3 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories rose 3.3 million barrels and stand nearly 7% higher than a year ago, while distillates rose 3.5 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, fell 615,000 bpd to 8.78 million, lower than GasBuddy’s recent estimates. Refinery utilization fell 1.7 percentage points to 93.7%.
FUEL DEMAND
With the global IT outage last weekend, some banks had issues settling transactions, causing data to arrive late to GasBuddy. According to GasBuddy demand estimates driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand fell 0.5-1.0% for the week ending July 20 (Sun-Sat). Due to the IT outage, weekly PADD changes are not available at this time.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.39 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.29, $3.59, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week and about 8 cents lower than the national average. The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.49 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.91 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Mississippi ($2.94), Louisiana ($3.03), Oklahoma ($3.03).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.62), Hawaii ($4.56), and Washington ($4.18).
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.89 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week, followed by $3.99, $3.79, $3.69, and $3.59 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.69 per gallon, down 8 cents from last week and about 10 cents lower than the national average for diesel. Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.65 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.21 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($3.32), Texas ($3.35), and Louisiana ($3.46).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.40), California ($4.99), and Washington ($4.47).