The Next Gas Price Spike Could Arrive Just Before Memorial Day
by: GasBuddy
Published: May 25, 2026
BOSTON...The nation’s average price of gasoline has fallen 1 cent over the last week and stands at $4.47 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 45.2 cents from a month ago and is $1.33 per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel fell 0.5 cents in the last week and stands at $5.618 per gallon.
“The national average price of gasoline spent much of last week drifting lower after jumping early in the week as oil prices softened on hopes that diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran could help ease supply concerns,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “However, that optimism faded after President Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping failed to produce a breakthrough on Iran, while renewed warnings toward Tehran have helped push oil prices higher again. With global oil inventories continuing to trend toward historically tight levels, markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments and potential supply disruptions. As a result, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to remain volatile, and with Memorial Day approaching, any sustained increase in oil prices could begin pushing retail fuel prices higher again in the weeks ahead.”
OIL MARKET DYNAMICS
Oil markets continued their upward march over the past week as geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations kept traders focused on the growing risk of supply disruptions. While hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough had briefly pressured prices lower in prior weeks, optimism faded as talks appeared to stall again, reinforcing concerns that tensions could persist or escalate further. Continued unease surrounding shipping flows and export infrastructure has helped rebuild a sizable geopolitical risk premium into crude prices.
Despite some modest profit-taking in early Monday trade, oil prices remained well above week-ago levels. WTI crude oil was down 34 cents to $105.08 per barrel in early trading, but still significantly above last Monday’s $98.37 level, while Brent crude slipped 25 cents to $109.01 per barrel, also well above last week’s $104.36 starting point. The gains over the last week underscore how quickly market sentiment has shifted back toward supply concerns, particularly as traders grow less confident that a near-term diplomatic resolution will emerge.
Looking ahead, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets continue reacting to every new development tied to negotiations, military rhetoric, and global oil flows. While prices have stabilized somewhat from the sharp intraday swings seen in recent weeks, the continued uncertainty surrounding diplomacy and regional stability suggests oil markets will remain highly headline-driven in the near term.
“Oil prices rose over the last week, as the expectation that the meeting between Trump and Xi would facilitate a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize, with flows remaining restricted. Demand for U.S. oil barrels from abroad remained high last week, likely translating into another very high U.S. crude export number and ongoing draws in US oil inventories. Oil prices will continue to react sensitively to news of talks between the US and Iran,” added Giovanni Staunovo, UBS commodities analyst, via e-mail.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLIES
The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending May 8, 2026, showed U.S. oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels and are about 0.3% below the seasonal average for this time of year, while the SPR fell 8.6 million barrels to 384.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels and are about 5% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories rose by 0.2 million barrels and are about 9% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization rose 1.6 percentage points to 91.7%, while implied gasoline demand, the EIA’s proxy for retail demand, fell 59,000 bpd to 8.754 million barrels per day.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists was $4.19 per gallon, up 20 cents from a week ago, followed by $3.99, $4.09, $4.29, and $4.49, rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $4.29 per gallon, down 5 cents from last week and about 18 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.85 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.77 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Texas ($3.92), Louisiana ($3.96), and Oklahoma ($3.96).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($6.11), Washington ($5.71), and Hawaii ($5.62).
Biggest weekly changes: Colorado (+34.1¢), Minnesota (+26.2¢), New Mexico (+26.2¢), Indiana (-21.5¢), Wisconsin (+14.8¢).
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, unchanged from la